Part of this blog is a way for me to talk about critical thinking, and part of critical thinking is thinking ABOUT thinking. As in, being aware of when you’re tripping yourself up in your thinking, or when someone else is falling prey to sloppy or illogical thinking.

So let’s start with an example of what’s called a cognitive bias. In this case, a bias often called The Barnum Effect.

Cognitive Biases

Let’s start first of all with explaining what cognitive bias is. At it’s simplest, it’s an error in processing or interpreting information that we take in from the world around us. All of us are prone to some degree of cognitive biases, but the more you’re able to think about your thought processes and watch for these, the less likely you are to have them lead you astray.

Dr. Forer’s Personality Test

Now let’s have a little story.

Once upon a time, there was a professor named Dr. Bertram Forer. Dr. Forer was a professor of psychology, and one day in 1948 he gave a test to 39 of his students. He told them it was a personality test and he would soon give them a personalized result from the test that would describe their personality.

About a week later, Dr. Forer handed each of his students a card with list of personality traits on it based on the test they’d taken. Here is an example of the the results on one of the cards:

1. You have a great need for other people to like and admire you.
2. You have a tendency to be critical of yourself.
3. You have a great deal of unused capacity which you have not turned to your advantage.
4. While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them.
5. Your sexual adjustment has presented problems for you.
6. Disciplined and self-controlled outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure inside.
7. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing.
8. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations.
9. You pride yourself as an independent thinker and do not accept others’ statements without satisfactory proof.
10. You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others.
11. At times you are extroverted, affable, sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, reserved.
12. Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic.
13. Security is one of your major goals in life.

Dr. Forer then asked his students to rate on a scale of 1 (very poor) to 5 (very good) how accurate they felt their results were. The average score was 4.30, so the students felt these results were pretty accurate.

Except…there was a catch.

All 39 students received the same results. The list of 13 results above? Every student got the same list. That’s not just one result from the test. It’s the result every student received.

So what’s the deal? How did 39 different students all agree that the test was very accurate at describing them, even though they all got exactly the same results?

The Barnum Effect

The answer: The Barnum Effect (sometimes called the Forer Effect, but the first name has gained more popularity in recent years). People have a tendency to believe vaguely generic statements describe them specifically. Usually, this applies more to positive statements than negative, as people tend to want to believe good things about themselves. Also, adding qualifiers like “at times” increases the likelihood that the person will believe it applies to them.

So What?

Well, ok, so what’s the big deal if people fall prey to a little flattery now and then?

Well, advertisers can use this to tweak their advertisements, for one. If you subscribe to a media content provider that has a “Recommended for you” type of feature – that’s a little taste of trying to use the Barnum Effect. The actual recommendations offered might be pretty generic and in actuality might be offered to 90% of the apps users, but by adding “For you” to it…well, it makes it seem a little more personal, and maybe you’re more likely to click on one of the recommendations to check it out.

But more nefariously, scammers can use it, too. The classic example of this is psychics, astrologers and palm readers. Reading a newspaper astrology column is pretty harmless, but there are people who spend thousands of dollars for psychic readings that are as accurate as Dr. Forer’s personality test. And of course there’s just something as basic as “You look like someone who knows a good deal when you see it!” is a classic sort of statement, whether it’s just an opening to a legit sales pitch to soften up the customer’s resolve or a con artist stroking a mark’s ego.

Personality Tests

Personality tests also rely on this cognitive bias. Sure, have some fun with “What kind of moss are you?” personality tests on social media, but understand they’re just for fun and no more accurate than astrology or palm reading.

But then there are the professional personality tests – tests like the famous Myers-Briggs test.

Before I go on, allow me to provide a bit of insight into how the Myers-Briggs test came about with this short from Adam Ruins Everything:

Of course, the Myers-Briggs folks will be quick to tell you that they are reliable, etc. But given that people can get very different results taking the test a few days apart…how reliable can it really be?

And yet companies have used this as part of their basis for promotions, and there are any number of articles out there online expounding on CEO’s with certain Myers-Briggs personality types, or which personality types make for the best worker bees, or entrepreneurs, or whatever.

<pause to receive hate mail from Myers-Briggs fans…>

Ok, so back on track. Where does this leave us?

What can we do?

Awareness and skepticism are our best defense. Just be aware of your own thinking and be a little skeptical of generic-sounding statements, especially flattery. Step back mentally and think about the motives behind offering such statements – is someone trying to influence you to do something, for example? The best defense against falling prey to a lot of cognitive biases is time – actually pause and take a moment to think about your current thinking, rather than rushing forward with what might be flawed thinking.

Until next time folks. Stay curious!

Sources & Further Reading (in no particular order):

Why do we believe our horoscopes?

Barnum Effect – Encyclopedia Britannica

The Fallacy of Personal Validation: A Classroom Demonstration of Gullibility by Bertram R. Forer

Barnum Effect – APA Dictionary of Psychology

The Barnum Demonstration